PLA "Justice Mission" Drills Rehearse Blockade Mechanics; France Signals Alarm

PARIS — The French Foreign Ministry has issued a formal call for "peace and stability" in the Taiwan Strait, a diplomatic intervention that underscores the operational severity of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) "Justice Mission 2025." While the statement is diplomatic in tone, it serves as a reaction to a significant escalation: Chinese forces are currently executing maneuvers explicitly designed to simulate a naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan.

For observers tracking the probability of a Kinetic Event or Blockade by June 2026, the French statement validates the material shift observed over the last 48 hours. According to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, the PLA has deployed a record 89 warplanes and nearly 30 naval vessels to the north, south, and east of Taiwan.

Crucially, these forces practiced sealing off key ports and assaulting maritime targets—actions that rehearse the specific mechanics required to enforce isolation.

The Signal: Drill vs. Interdiction Despite the intensity of "Justice Mission 2025," current intelligence indicates that the threshold for a qualifying blockade—defined as the enforced prevention of commercial ingress or egress for 24 hours or more—has not been met.

The current maneuvers rely on warning areas and live-fire zones (drills) rather than the physical interdiction of third-country commercial traffic. Commercial lanes remain technically open, albeit hazardous, distinguishing this event from a "de facto" exclusion zone. However, the ballistic missile impacts in Taiwan’s contiguous zone suggest Beijing is testing the enforcement perimeter required for a future isolation strategy.

Catalysts for Escalation The sharp uptick in military pressure follows two major geopolitical triggers in December 2025:

• The U.S. Factor: The approval of a record $11 billion arms package for Taiwan. Beijing has vowed to meet this with "resolute" countermeasures, and the scale of the current drills serves as that response.
• Regional Posture: Recent comments regarding Japanese intervention in a Strait contingency have further inflamed tensions.

While the European Union and France have coordinated their diplomatic response to preserve the status quo, the "punitive" nature of the current PLA operation indicates a rapid shortening of the warning time between exercise and execution. As the June 2026 timeline progresses, the normalization of blockade-style drills significantly alters the risk profile for a transition from "exercise" to "enforced closure."