DHS Notice to End Haitian TPS Unlocks 'Supply' for High-Volume FY 2026 Deportation Scenarios

WASHINGTON — The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has filed a Federal Register notice to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian nationals, a move that immediately reclassifies approximately 300,000 to 500,000 individuals as legally removable. For prediction markets tracking FY 2026 ICE deportation volumes, this is a critical "supply-side" signal: the administration is securing the demographic volume required to push removal figures significantly above the FY 2024 baseline of 271,484.

The filing confirms that the Trump administration, under DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, is moving to finalize the bureaucratic process necessary to clear "administrative record" hurdles that previously stalled termination attempts. While litigation—specifically the Ramos v. Mayorkas proceedings—delayed earlier timelines, this renewed notice indicates the administration intends to make this population legally deportable within the current fiscal cycle.

The Fiscal Year 2026 Impact The timing is statistically decisive. Fiscal Year 2026 began on October 1, 2025. By vacating the previous administration’s extension (which would have protected these nationals through February 2026) and issuing a new termination date, DHS ensures these cases fall squarely within the operational window for the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report.

To reach the higher-end prediction brackets—specifically the 500,000–600,000 or 800,000+ removal scenarios—ICE requires a large pool of subjects who are already documented and located within the system. TPS holders fit this profile. The expiration of protections for the Haitian cohort alone could theoretically double ICE's removal capacity compared to FY 2024, provided the agency has the logistical infrastructure (detention space and flights) to execute the orders.

Aggregating the Removable Population The strategy appears to be cumulative. Recent reports indicate simultaneous moves to terminate TPS for nationals from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Honduras. With Venezuela’s termination effective as of November 8, 2025, and Haiti’s designation now set for a definitive end, the administration is aggregating a substantial population of previously protected individuals.

If these policy shifts survive expected legal challenges, the influx of removable subjects makes the "High Deportation" scenarios (800k+) statistically viable for the first time in this cycle. However, traders should monitor the federal courts; an injunction staying these terminations would likely push the actual removal of these individuals into FY 2027, effectively capping FY 2026 figures closer to the historical baseline.