PDVSA Claims "Normal" Operations, Signaling Imminent Clash with U.S. Blockade

CARACAS — Venezuela’s state-run oil company, PDVSA, issued an internal communique today assuring employees that production and refining operations remain "normal." While the message contradicts independent data showing a logistical collapse, it signals a critical tactical intent: the state giant is preparing to force crude exports through the U.S. naval blockade, significantly raising the probability of vessel seizures in the coming weeks.

For market observers tracking the Caribbean standoff, PDVSA’s refusal to concede to operational shutdowns serves as a leading indicator. By insisting operations are standard, the company is effectively committing to clearing its saturated storage. This necessitates moving laden tankers out of port and directly into the U.S. cordon.

The internal message attempts to counter a week of rapid escalation. As of December 30, 2025, U.S. forces had already seized two Venezuelan oil cargoes and ramped up naval patrols. Despite these losses, PDVSA’s "business as usual" stance implies a strategy of high-risk resistance, likely relying on its "shadow fleet" to run the gauntlet.

The logistical reality, however, contradicts the corporate narrative. Industry monitors report that domestic storage tanks are at capacity, forcing a 25% decline in output in the Orinoco Belt and a 40% drop in exports throughout December. With onshore capacity exhausted, PDVSA has been forced into floating storage; tracking data currently shows a bottleneck of 16 million barrels of unsold oil on tankers idling near the Jose port.

This bottleneck creates a volatile flashpoint. To sustain the "normal" production levels claimed in today's wire, PDVSA must relieve storage pressure by deploying these vessels.

The U.S. Treasury Department tightened the net on January 1, sanctioning four additional tankers and associated firms. This financial squeeze, combined with the physical presence of U.S. naval assets, leaves PDVSA with few options. As the company attempts to project resilience to its workforce, the operational imperative dictates that tankers must leave the harbor, keeping the risk of further asset seizures critically high through the January 31 timeframe.