Kyiv Rejects Territorial Concessions, Complicating U.S. Peace Timeline

KYIV – A potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Ukraine-Russia war faces a decisive obstacle after a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ruled out any agreement involving the formal cession of land. In an interview published Thursday by The Atlantic, Andriy Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office, stated unequivocally that "as long as Zelenskyy is president, Ukraine will not give up territory."

Yermak’s comments establish a firm "red line" regarding sovereignty, significantly narrowing the scope of the U.S.-brokered peace initiative currently under negotiation. While Ukrainian officials have reportedly agreed to the "core terms" of a ceasefire framework following meetings with U.S. delegations authorized by President Donald Trump, the legal status of occupied territories has emerged as the primary sticking point.

According to background briefings on the recent Geneva talks, the initial U.S. "28-point plan" proposed that Ukraine might trade territorial claims for security guarantees. Zelenskyy acknowledged on November 24 that while the refined plan contained "many correct elements," the "legal recognition of stolen territory" constituted the main obstacle to a final deal.

For observers tracking the probability of a settlement, the distinction between de facto military control and de jure sovereignty is now the central variable. While the Zelenskyy administration appears open to a ceasefire that freezes current front lines—a scenario that would leave Russia in de facto control of occupied areas—Yermak’s declaration signals that Kyiv will refuse any treaty clause that formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian soil.

This distinction is critical. A refusal to grant de jure recognition directly lowers the probability of a comprehensive peace treaty that redraws borders by 2025 or 2026. However, it leaves open the possibility of a technical cessation of hostilities, provided it does not require Kyiv to legally renounce its constitutional borders.

Yet, even a ceasefire faces hurdles. Yermak’s public rejection serves as a counter-signal to the Kremlin’s escalating demands. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that negotiations were contingent upon Ukrainian troop withdrawals from the entirety of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions—including major cities currently under Ukrainian control such as Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk.

By ruling out territorial concessions, Yermak has effectively challenged the viability of a comprehensive deal by the end of the year, suggesting that any near-term agreement would likely be limited to a fragile suspension of fighting rather than a formalized peace.