DHS Targets 235,000 Asylum Cases for Review, Creating New Removal Pipeline for FY 2026

WASHINGTON — The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) formally announced Thursday a comprehensive review of all asylum cases approved under the Biden administration, a policy shift that subjects approximately 235,000 previously protected individuals to potential status revocation. For prediction markets tracking deportation volumes, this directive establishes a significant new source of removable non-citizens for the FY 2026 cycle.

While fiscal year 2024 saw approximately 271,000 ICE removals, this new initiative creates a specific administrative mechanism to strip legal status from a quarter-million individuals. This effectively converts a population currently shielded from enforcement into subjects eligible for expedited removal, potentially fueling a surge in statistics just as the FY 2026 reporting period accelerates.

The directive stems from an internal U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) memo signed by Director Joe Edlow on November 21, 2025. The order mandates "detailed screening and vetting" of refugees and asylum seekers admitted between January 20, 2021, and February 20, 2025. Crucially, the memo imposes an immediate operational freeze on permanent residence (green card) applications for this cohort, halting their path to citizenship while their initial admissions are re-adjudicated.

The administration’s strategy appears calibrated to maximize deportation throughput. According to the memo, refugee status will be terminated for those found ineligible upon re-interview, stripping them of protection and exposing them to immediate deportation proceedings. Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller confirmed the scope on Fox News, stating that "every single person" admitted in the last four years would face scrutiny.

This review has been accelerated by political pressure following a November 26 shooting in Washington, D.C., involving an Afghan national granted asylum in April 2025. While the incident served as the public catalyst, the operational framework—drafted prior to the shooting—indicates a calculated effort to widen the aperture of deportable individuals.

With the administrative machinery now active, the timeline for revocations and subsequent removals is likely to align with the 2026 fiscal year. This development is a critical variable for stakeholders assessing whether ICE has the caseload capacity to exceed the 300,000-removal threshold or push toward higher targets in the coming year.