Iran on the Brink: Trump Threatens 'Rescue' Operation as Currency Collapse Ignites Unrest

WASHINGTON/TEHRAN — The stability of the Islamic Republic faces its most precarious test in decades. On Friday, President Donald Trump explicitly threatened military intervention to "rescue" Iranian protesters, stating the United States is "locked and loaded." The warning injects a volatile external variable into a rapidly deteriorating domestic crisis, where hyperinflation and nationwide strikes are threatening the core of the regime less than a year after the June 2025 conflict.

The confrontation all but extinguishes the likelihood of resumed nuclear negotiations in the first quarter of 2026 and shifts the geopolitical focus squarely toward the survival of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s administration.

From Currency Crash to Political Revolt While the immediate trigger for the U.S. warning was reports of state violence against demonstrators, the underlying driver is a historic economic collapse that analysts suggest could imperil the regime’s hold on power.

Following the activation of United Nations "snapback" sanctions and renewed U.S. "maximum pressure" late last year, the Iranian rial crashed to a record low of 1.44 million to the U.S. dollar on December 29. The depreciation sparked immediate strikes by merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar—a critical constituency that historically bankrolled the 1979 revolution—before spreading to major provincial hubs including Isfahan and Shiraz.

Intelligence reports confirm that what began Sunday as economic grievances over fuel and bread subsidies has rapidly metastasized into anti-government unrest. With fatalities confirmed in western provinces, the internal pressure on the regime is reaching levels comparable to the pre-revolutionary period.

Renewed Conflict Risk President Trump’s rhetoric on Truth Social signals a potential return to direct military engagement. By framing potential U.S. action as a "rescue" mission for civilians, the administration is signaling a willingness to bypass diplomatic protocols. This rhetoric follows the precedent set during the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure in June 2025, indicating that kinetic options remain active.

Tehran views the threat as existential. Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, warned Washington to consider the safety of its soldiers—a veiled threat to activate proxy networks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

Geopolitical Outlook: The End of Diplomacy? The escalation creates a distinct divergence in forecasts for the region:

• Diplomatic Freeze: The exchange of direct military threats makes the resumption of official nuclear talks unlikely in the near term. The diplomatic window that existed prior to the currency crash has effectively closed.
• Regime Survival Tested: Unlike routine political cycles, the combination of a striking merchant class, hyperinflation caused by structural sanctions, and an explicit U.S. military threat places significant strain on the Islamic Republic's security apparatus.

As the 86-year-old Supreme Leader confronts a hollowed-out economy and a hostile Washington, the consensus of reporting suggests the coming weeks may be decisive for the continuity of the current governance system in Iran.