Venezuela Raid: White House Threatens New Strikes as War Powers Fight Looms

WASHINGTON — The capture of Nicolás Maduro was not the conclusion of "Operation Absolute Resolve"—it was merely the opening salvo. Following the daring weekend raid that placed the Venezuelan strongman in U.S. custody, the Trump administration has issued an explicit warning: "further military action" remains on the table if the transition of power does not align immediately with U.S. demands.

This threat of continued kinetic engagement has triggered an immediate constitutional confrontation. As the U.S. Senate races to vote on a War Powers Resolution this week, the White House is signaling that the 15,000-strong U.S. force massed in the Caribbean is prepared to strike again, keeping the probability of near-term escalation high.

The Ultimatum: Strikes Tied to Transition

While President Trump characterized the extraction as a "pre-planned" success, the operational posture has not de-escalated. Administration officials have made clear that Washington intends to oversee a temporary transition, placing immense pressure on interim president Delcy Rodríguez.

Sources familiar with the operation confirm the White House has issued a stark ultimatum: failure to meet U.S. transition benchmarks could trigger additional airstrikes. This aggressive stance is the first real-world test of the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, a strategy designed to deny non-hemispheric competitors strategic footholds. Intelligence confirming a meeting between Maduro and a Chinese special envoy just hours before the raid underscores that these potential future strikes serve a dual purpose: coercing Caracas and signaling Beijing.

The "Narco-Terrorism" Loophole

For analysts monitoring the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) and War Powers markets, the administration’s legal framing is the critical variable. Attorney General Pam Bondi has unsealed a superseding indictment charging Maduro’s inner circle with narco-terrorism and cocaine importation.

By categorizing the conflict as a large-scale "law enforcement action" rather than an act of war, the White House is attempting to bypass the War Powers Resolution. This distinction is vital:

• AUMF Implications: If the administration successfully argues this is a counter-narcotics operation, they likely will not seek a formal AUMF from Congress, suppressing the probability of legislative authorization by late January.
• War Powers Evasion: This legal framework provides the executive branch cover to maintain the current "oil quarantine" and military blockade without triggering the 60-day clock usually required for unauthorized hostilities.

However, the Senate's upcoming bipartisan vote challenges this rationale. If the Senate asserts that specific target strikes constitute "hostilities," it could force a legal showdown regarding the President's Article II authority.

Boots on the Ground vs. Economic Security

Despite the volatile political rhetoric, the physical footprint of the operation suggests a calculated, long-term strategy. Major oil infrastructure, including the Jose port and Amuay refinery, was deliberately spared. U.S. energy major Chevron continues to operate under a special Treasury license—a move analysts suggest is designed to keep Venezuelan oil flowing under tight U.S. supervision while the political architecture is dismantled.

As markets digest the geopolitical risk—evidenced by Gold rising 1.4% and Asian equities rallying—the central question remains tactical. Was the initial raid a surgical extraction, or the precursor to a broader occupation? With the White House refusing to rule out further kinetic strikes to secure its "managed transition," the scope of U.S. involvement in Venezuela remains fluid and highly explosive.