Pentagon Blacklist Recommendation Dims Prospects for Surprise November Trump-Xi Summit

WASHINGTON D.C. — A newly disclosed Pentagon recommendation to blacklist Chinese tech titans Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD has cast a chill over U.S.-China relations just days before the end of November, effectively extinguishing lingering speculation of a surprise in-person meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping this month.

While the leaders spoke by phone on November 24 to stabilize ties, the November 26 disclosure of the "1260H" list recommendation signals that Washington is maintaining structural pressure rather than clearing the decks for an immediate summit. With the Pentagon targeting the pillars of China’s civilian economy and the two leaders having already committed to an April 2026 timeline for state visits, the window for an emergency November 2025 encounter appears firmly closed.

Timing and Signals The recommendation stems from an October 7 letter by Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg, drafted prior to the leaders' previous meeting in South Korea. However, the strategic release of this information on November 26—immediately following the leaders' "trade truce" call—indicates that the administration intends to continue technical decoupling parallel to diplomatic engagement.

During the November 24 call, Trump and Xi focused on trade, Taiwan, and fentanyl precursors, agreeing to reciprocal state visits commencing with a Trump trip to Beijing in April 2026. There is no indication from the White House or Beijing that this schedule has been accelerated to include a November 2025 face-to-face.

The 1260H Impact The Pentagon’s assessment alleges that Alibaba (e-commerce), Baidu (AI), and BYD (EVs) support Beijing’s "Military-Civil Fusion" strategy. While inclusion on the Section 1260H list does not trigger immediate blocking sanctions, it acts as a warning to global investors and creates a predicate for future contracting bans scheduled for mid-2026.

China’s Foreign Ministry responded on Tuesday, stating it "consistently opposes" the U.S. approach, a friction point that further reduces the likelihood of a last-minute diplomatic rendezvous before December.

Market Implications For observers tracking the probability of a November meeting, the blacklist recommendation serves as a definitive negative signal. The diplomatic track appears fixed on the 2026 roadmap, leaving the final days of November defined by regulatory skirmishes rather than leader-level summits.