Intel Chiefs’ UAE Summit Signals Shift Away from Ukraine-Based Talks

ABU DHABI/MOSCOW – The logistical architecture for a potential peace framework is being constructed in the Gulf, not Eastern Europe. On Tuesday, Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that intelligence chiefs from Russia and Ukraine met in the United Arab Emirates—a development that significantly lowers the probability of any near-term summit occurring within Ukraine’s borders.

While the Kremlin framed the Nov. 25 meeting as a routine discussion on "sensitive matters" like prisoner exchanges, the delegation list suggests a broader strategic agenda. The Ukrainian side was led by GUR chief Kyrylo Budanov, while the Russian delegation included SVR Director Sergey Naryshkin and GRU chief Igor Kostyukov.

Crucially, the talks included an unexpected "wild card": a high-ranking U.S. representative—identified in conflicting reports as either Army Secretary Dan Driscoll or special envoy Steve Witkoff—who held separate meetings with both camps. The presence of a U.S. official "in charge of the Ukraine issue" implies this channel is being used to stress-test a 19-point peace plan recently refined during sessions in Geneva.

The Market Consequence For observers tracking the location of a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, the UAE summit establishes a critical precedent.

Historically, heads-of-state summits in active conflict zones follow the path paved by their intelligence forebearers. With the "heavy lifting" of negotiations now anchored in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, the diplomatic gravity has shifted away from the combat theater.

The UAE offers a secure, neutral environment that the Kremlin views as acceptable, avoiding the political impossibility of a Moscow summit or the security nightmare of a Kyiv rendezvous. If a leaders’ meeting is the next step in this sequence, the established pattern points toward a broker nation—such as the UAE, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia—rather than a dramatic return to Ukrainian territory.