Logo

"All the Polymarket News That's Fit to Trade"

Kremlin Rejects “Premature” Peace Talk as Kyiv Nears Deadline on U.S. Framework

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
MarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
7%
0.50%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
MarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
29%
5.00%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
MarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
60%
0.50%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
MarketRussia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
16%
0.00%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
MarketUkraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
0%
1.35%
Related Market(s): Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?, Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?, Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?, Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?

MOSCOW – The Kremlin dismissed reports of an imminent peace deal as "premature" on Tuesday, casting a shadow over diplomatic breakthroughs achieved in Geneva just as Kyiv appears poised to formally accept a U.S.-brokered framework.

The statement from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov creates a sharp bifurcation in the diplomatic landscape: while Ukraine and the United States have aligned on a revised 19-point plan ahead of the Thursday, Nov. 27 deadline set by U.S. negotiators, Moscow is signaling it will reject these new terms.

The Market Split: Ukraine Agrees, Russia Waits

For observers tracking the peace process, the current dynamic presents a split scenario.

Ukrainian officials indicated on Nov. 25 that they had reached a "common understanding" with the Trump administration on a revised framework. If Kyiv formally accepts this U.S.-approved plan by the Thursday holiday, it would mark a major diplomatic milestone, effectively locking in Ukraine's position.

However, the Kremlin’s comments suggest that while a U.S.-Ukraine agreement is imminent, a bilateral treaty ending the war remains distant. Peskov told reporters that Russia has received "nothing official" regarding the changes made in Geneva, maintaining that Moscow cannot evaluate a deal based on media reports.

Geneva vs. Anchorage: The Core Dispute

The diplomatic friction centers on two competing drafts of the peace framework:

  • The "Anchorage" Plan (28 Points): An earlier draft favored by Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously signaled this version—which included deeper territorial concessions in the Donbas and strict NATO non-alignment—could form the "basis" of a settlement.
  • The Geneva Revision (19 Points): The current text, renegotiated by U.S. and Ukrainian teams in Geneva on Nov. 23-24. This version pared down the Anchorage terms to make them palatable to Kyiv.

By labeling the deal "premature," the Kremlin is effectively drawing a red line against the Geneva revisions. Lavrov warned explicitly on Nov. 25 that Russia would reject any agreement deviating from the "spirit and letter" of the original Anchorage proposal.

Next Steps: The Witkoff Mission

The diplomatic burden now shifts to U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who is scheduled to travel to Moscow this week. His mission is to bridge the widening gap between the 19-point framework Ukraine is prepared to sign and the 28-point demands Russia refuses to abandon.

While Kyiv’s acceptance of the U.S. plan appears likely within the next 48 hours, the Kremlin’s stance confirms that a comprehensive end to hostilities—which requires Moscow’s signature—will not happen on the same timeline.