Beijing Ends 'Justice Mission' Drills; 2025 Invasion Window Closes

TAIPEI/BEIJING – The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has officially concluded its "Justice Mission 2025" military exercises, ending a volatile 48-hour blockade simulation just hours before the end of the calendar year. The cessation of maneuvers confirms that the high-intensity drills will not transition into an immediate territorial offensive, effectively closing the window on a 2025 cross-strait invasion scenario.

State-run broadcaster CCTV confirmed the termination of the operation, which tested the PLA's "joint blockade and control" capabilities. While the exercises brought Chinese forces closer to Taiwan’s territorial waters than previous baselines, the operation remained a simulation. No territory was seized, and the rapid withdrawal of assets signals that the status quo regarding Taiwan's sovereignty will hold through the December 31 deadline.

Drills Establish New Baseline Despite the de-escalation, the scope of "Justice Mission 2025" set a precedent for future pressure campaigns. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported detecting 77 military aircraft and 25 naval and coast guard vessels operating around the island. Crucially, live-fire zones encroached significantly on the median line of the Taiwan Strait, disrupting civilian transit and airspace.

Beijing framed the blockade simulation as a "punitive response" to the United States' December 18 announcement of a record-breaking $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan. The package, which includes mobile rocket systems and advanced tactical data equipment, was cited by analysts as the primary trigger for the timing of the PLA's show of force.

Strategic Implications Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te condemned the drills as "reckless," and the island’s defense forces remain on high alert. However, the lack of a kinetic transition to actual warfare indicates that Beijing’s objectives were demonstrative rather than invasive for the current timeline.

For market observers monitoring the probability of conflict, the return of PLA forces to base marks the final resolution point for 2025 risks. The aggressive posture demonstrated capability, but the timeline for a forceful unification attempt has officially pushed beyond the current year.