China’s NDRC Briefing: Domestic Focus Damps Hopes for Last-Minute Tariff Deal

BEIJING — China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has scheduled a press conference for December 31 at 10:00 AM local time (9:00 PM ET, Dec. 30). As the final scheduled briefing by a major Chinese economic body before the year-end, this event serves as a critical signal check for investors betting on a US-China tariff agreement by the December 31, 2025 deadline.

While the timing technically creates a venue for a bilateral announcement, the content of the briefing is expected to focus heavily on domestic policy, signaling a divergence that lowers the probability of a last-minute trade accord.

The Domestic Pivot Analysis of the NDRC’s agenda indicates the briefing will prioritize the legislative transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan (ending 2025) to the 15th Five-Year Plan (beginning 2026). Recent directives from the commission have emphasized "security" and "entrenchment" rather than the liberalization typically associated with US trade negotiations.

Background data regarding the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan suggests three key themes that contradict an imminent trade breakthrough:

Resource Control: In the week leading up to the briefing, the NDRC issued warnings against "disorderly expansion" in strategic sectors like copper and alumina, while extending crude steel output controls through 2030.
Self-Sufficiency: Directives issued December 24 mandate a massive increase in grain production capacity (50 billion kg), prioritizing agricultural autonomy.
Growth Stability: With GDP growth effectively locking in the "around 5 percent" target for 2025, Beijing faces limited domestic economic pressure to make concessions to Washington before the New Year.

Market Implications For prediction markets gauging the likelihood of a tariff deal by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, the NDRC briefing represents a substantial hurdle.

The agency’s recent flurry of supply-side notices suggests the briefing will be used to set the operational tone for the 2026–2030 cycle, focusing on internal "structural upgrading." Unless the NDRC deviates significantly from this script to address "external cooperative frameworks," the event will likely confirm that Beijing’s immediate priority is internal fortification, not external trade resolution.

Investors should view a "business as usual" briefing on domestic planning as a strong negative indicator for the realization of a tariff deal in 2025.