Kremlin Confirms Kushner’s Role as US Peace Framework Pivots to Florida

MOSCOW/FLORIDA – The probability of a formalized U.S.-backed peace framework emerging in 2025 rose Friday after the Kremlin officially acknowledged the "very active" role of Jared Kushner in ongoing settlement negotiations. The confirmation accompanies a critical pivot in "shuttle diplomacy," as U.S. envoys shift from marathon meetings in Moscow to high-stakes briefings with Ukrainian officials in Florida.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Kushner, acting as a senior adviser within the U.S. delegation, has been instrumental in shaping the documents currently under discussion. For observers tracking the likelihood of a U.S.-endorsed peace plan (Market 6), this is a vital signal: it confirms that specific written instruments—a strict prerequisite for any qualifying framework agreement—are actively being exchanged and revised at the highest levels.

The "28-Point Plan" and Document Exchange

Diplomatic activity is currently centering on a revised "28-point plan," which Ushakov noted was recently supplemented by four additional documents presented to President Vladimir Putin during a five-hour meeting with the U.S. delegation on Tuesday, December 2.

While Ushakov characterized the Moscow talks as "constructive," he emphasized that no breakthrough has yet been achieved. The primary obstacle remains territorial control, specifically Moscow’s demand for recognition of annexed territories in the Donbas region. This condition is not fully addressed in current drafts of U.S. and Ukrainian proposals. This territorial deadlock remains the most significant hurdle to a formal buffer zone agreement (Market 3) or a final peace treaty signed by Ukraine (Market 4).

The Florida Pivot: A Test for Market 6

With the Moscow leg concluded, the focus has shifted immediately to the Ukrainian response—the final variable required for a successful U.S.-backed framework. A Ukrainian delegation, including negotiator Rustem Umerov, was scheduled to meet with Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in Florida on Thursday to review the outcomes of the Kremlin talks.

For a U.S.-backed framework to trigger a "Yes" resolution in prediction markets, Ukraine must officially agree to the terms through a signed instrument or formal government declaration. The Florida meetings represent a critical juncture where Kyiv will either accept the revised "28-point plan" as a basis for negotiation or reject the current terms regarding security guarantees and territorial concessions.

"Closer," But Not Closed

Despite the accelerated diplomatic tempo, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio moved to temper expectations on Friday. While characterizing the parties as "closer" to an agreement than at any point in the last three years, Rubio cautioned that they are "not close enough" to finalize a deal immediately.

However, as the December 31, 2025, deadline approaches for potential U.S. security guarantees (Market 2) and framework agreements, the explicit involvement of Kushner and the existence of detailed draft treaties suggest the U.S. administration is aggressively pursuing a formalized policy outcome rather than a temporary freeze.