Trump-Netanyahu Summit: Last Stand for a 2025 'Phase 2' Deal

Monday’s Mar-a-Lago summit between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu represents the final diplomatic window to secure a "Phase 2" Gaza ceasefire deal before the close of 2025. With negotiations currently deadlocked, the meeting will serve as the primary signal for whether the conflict transitions to a permanent truce or extends into the first quarter of 2026.

While the "Phase 1" truce implemented in October paused major combat and facilitated hostage releases, the transition to a permanent arrangement has stalled. The impasse threatens the Trump administration’s 20-point peace framework, specifically the establishment of an international "Board of Peace" and a Palestinian Technocratic Government.

According to briefing materials, the sticking point remains Hamas’s refusal to accept disarmament clauses—a prerequisite for the activation of Phase 2. Consequently, the IDF retains control over approximately 53% of the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Netanyahu, facing an election within 10 months, has signaled he is unwilling to relinquish this strategic hold without verifiable demilitarization guarantees.

The summit’s outcome will likely dictate the resolution of multiple contracting timelines. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly pressing for the immediate finalization of an "International Stabilization Force" to maintain diplomatic momentum. However, Netanyahu’s agenda prioritizes the Iranian nuclear threat and U.S. support for operations in post-Assad Syria, where Israel has intensified airstrikes to prevent weapons proliferation.

Regional instability further complicates the timeline. Arab partners have warned the White House that escalating Israeli operations in Syria and Lebanon—where over 1,600 strikes were reported in 2025—risk collapsing the fragile Phase 1 truce entirely.

For market observers, Monday is decisive: a failure to break the disarmament deadlock likely pushes the establishment of governance structures and a comprehensive deal beyond the March 31, 2026, horizon.