Venezuela Post-Raid: U.S. Pivots from Interdiction to Investment; Goldman Sees Slow Oil Recovery

HEADLINE: Venezuela Post-Raid: U.S. Pivots from Interdiction to Investment; Goldman Sees Slow Oil Recovery

CARACAS/NEW YORK – Following the successful execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve"—which confirmed the presence of U.S. Special Operations Forces on Venezuelan soil to extract Nicolás Maduro—the Trump administration is signaling an immediate strategic pivot from military pressure to economic stabilization. While the kinetic phase of the intervention concluded with the January 3 operation, analysts warn that Venezuela's return to global energy markets faces severe structural headwinds.

Custody and Legal Status The extraction of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to face unsealed indictments in the Southern District of New York fundamentally alters the region's geopolitical risk profile. With the former leader now detained within the U.S. federal correctional system, the probability of a negotiated release or return to power is near zero. Sources confirm that the administration’s focus has shifted entirely toward transitional governance; Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly established contact with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to facilitate a transfer of power, bypassing negotiations for Maduro's liberty.

From Seizures to Stability The operation marks a de facto end to the era of maritime interdiction. Prior to the January 3 raid, U.S. forces maintained an aggressive posture, including the seizure of oil tankers attempting to bypass sanctions. However, President Trump’s Sunday pledge to mobilize billions in U.S. corporate investment to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector signals a definitive move away from the "maximum pressure" blockade strategy.

By engaging directly with remaining elements of the Bolivarian government to stabilize the country, the U.S. is replacing enforcement actions—such as ship seizures—with the regulated reintegration of Venezuelan crude into the Western supply chain.

The Economic Reality Despite the geopolitical breakthrough, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cautioned investors against expecting an immediate flood of Venezuelan oil. In a note released shortly after the operation, the bank maintained its bearish 2026 price forecasts of $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI.

Goldman analysts highlighted that years of mismanagement have caused output to collapse from 3 million barrels per day (b/d) to roughly 930,000 b/d as of November 2025. "Degraded infrastructure," rather than political barriers, is now the primary bottleneck. While the U.S. pivot invites majors like Chevron to expand operations, the physical rebuilding of refineries and pipelines will ensure that supply increases remain gradual, mitigating any sudden shock to global oil prices.

Operational Footprint The events of the past week confirm a targeted reintroduction of U.S. military assets into Venezuelan territory, resolving speculation regarding U.S. boots on the ground. The January 3 operation involved active special warfare personnel physically entering Caracas to secure high-value targets. With the primary objective—"decapitation" of the regime leadership—achieved, the Pentagon has indicated no plans for a wider, long-term ground occupation, relying instead on the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group for offshore security during the transition.