Venezuela: TSJ Activates "Absolute Absence" Clause, Mandating Election Within 30 Days

CARACAS/WASHINGTON — The Constitutional Chamber of the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) has formally ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume the presidency, a ruling that triggers a strict constitutional deadline for the country's next election.

By officially designating the "absolute absence" (falta absoluta) of Nicolás Maduro—following his Jan. 3 capture by U.S. forces—the High Court has activated Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution. This provision mandates that when such an absence occurs within the first four years of a term, a new "direct and universal" election must be held within 30 consecutive days.

The Market Signal: Imminent Scheduling For observers tracking the stability of the transition, the TSJ’s ruling is the definitive legal signal that an electoral calendar is imminent.

• The Deadline: To comply with the 30-day mandate cited by the judiciary, the election would technically need to take place by early February 2026.
• The Announcement: For an election to be held within this window, the National Electoral Council (CNE) must legally announce the schedule immediately.

Failure to announce a date in the coming days would represent a breach of the very constitutional framework the TSJ invoked to legitimize Rodríguez’s interim presidency.

Geopolitical Friction vs. Constitutional Text While the constitutional clock has started, practical execution faces geopolitical headwinds. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed willingness to work with the Rodríguez administration to ensure "stability and oil flows."

There is a potential conflict between the rushed 30-day timeline required by Venezuelan law and the logistical realities of a U.S.-backed stabilization period. While Rodríguez continues to publicly condemn Maduro’s extraction, her administration’s acceptance of the TSJ order signals a move toward institutionalizing the transition.

Opposition Dynamics The ruling notably excludes traditional opposition figures from the immediate transition structure. With U.S. signals bypassing Nobel Laureate María Corina Machado in favor of the interim administration for immediate stability, the upcoming CNE announcement will clarify not just when the vote happens, but who is permitted to run.

Bottom Line: The legal trigger for a Q1 2026 election has been pulled. Focus now shifts entirely to the CNE for the official calendar release.