Escalation Alert: Tehran Threatens 'Regional Chaos' After Trump Declares U.S. Military 'Locked and Loaded'

DATELINE: TEHRAN/WASHINGTON

The probability of expanding military conflict in the Middle East spiked Friday after a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a stark ultimatum to the United States. Ali Larijani, a key figure in the Supreme Leader’s inner circle, warned that U.S. interference in Iran’s rapidly spreading civil unrest would be "equivalent to chaos across the entire region"—a thinly veiled threat widely interpreted as a signal that Tehran is prepared to activate proxy forces or disrupt maritime chokepoints if Washington intervenes.

This escalation is a direct response to a significant shift in U.S. posture earlier Friday. On his Truth Social platform, President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and prepared to "come to the rescue" of Iranian protesters should security forces utilize lethal violence.

Flashpoints: Regime Survival and Asymmetric Retaliation

Larijani’s warning drastically alters the risk calculus for two critical geopolitical sectors: the tenure of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

The rhetoric follows five days of intensifying unrest that began on December 28, 2025, sparked by a historic collapse of the Iranian rial to 1.45 million against the U.S. dollar. What began as economic grievances in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar has evolved into a movement explicitly calling for the end of the theocratic system. The unrest has now spread to at least 17 provinces, including the clerical stronghold of Qom.

With rights groups reporting at least seven protesters killed in Lorestan province, the Trump administration’s pivot from diplomatic condemnation to explicit military threats suggests the "12-Day War" of June 2025 may have been a prelude rather than a conclusion to hostilities.

Implications for Regional Stability

Intelligence analysts view Larijani’s equation of U.S. support with "chaos" as a specific deterrent against U.S. kinetic operations. Historically, such language from Tehran precedes asymmetric responses, raising the immediate risk profile for:

Strait of Hormuz Transit: The threat of "chaos" places global energy shipping lanes in immediate jeopardy. Analysts warn that Tehran may view closing the Strait as one of its few remaining leverage points against a hostile U.S. posture.
U.S. Military Engagement: President Trump’s assertion that forces are "locked and loaded" significantly lowers the threshold for a U.S. offensive or invasion scenario before the 2027 horizon, particularly if the death toll among protesters mounts.

Diplomatic Freeze

The exchange of direct threats effectively freezes potential diplomatic off-ramps. While speculation had previously existed regarding potential direct engagement between President Trump and the Supreme Leader in 2026, the current trajectory suggests Washington is betting on the collapse of the regime rather than negotiation.

As the unrest destabilizes the internal political order—threatening Khamenei’s hold on power—Tehran’s response indicates it views the combination of domestic uprising and U.S. pressure as a singular, existential military threat.