Trump Vows Accord Expansion; Somaliland Pivot Complicates Saudi Push

WEST PALM BEACH — President-elect Donald Trump signaled an imminent expansion of the Abraham Accords following a Sunday strategy session with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago. While the incoming administration is publicly advancing a "Phase Two" regional peace plan involving major Gulf powers, the immediate momentum for normalization has shifted unexpectedly toward the Horn of Africa.

The Dec. 29 meeting was intended to link post-war governance in Gaza with broader diplomatic normalization. However, the trajectory of the Accords is currently being defined by Israel's formal recognition of the breakaway republic of Somaliland on Friday. Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly categorized the move as being "in the spirit of the Abraham Accords," and Somaliland officials have confirmed their intent to formally join the pact.

The Peripheral Pivot For market observers, the Somaliland development fundamentally alters the probability landscape. If finalized, Somaliland’s accession would satisfy the criteria for a new signatory joining the Accords before 2027, marking the first expansion since the initial wave involving the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.

The Saudi Complication While a Somaliland signing offers a rapid diplomatic victory, it complicates the Trump administration’s primary geopolitical objective: bringing Saudi Arabia into the fold.

Riyadh is the keystone of the Trump team’s "20-point plan," which relies on a "Board of Peace" funded by Arab nations to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction. However, Saudi officials reacted sharply to the Somaliland announcement, viewing it as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty. Sources indicate Riyadh believes the move "distances" the Kingdom from normalization, framing it as a destabilizing act rather than a step toward integration.

Market Outlook The diplomatic trade-off is stark. By prioritizing a peripheral win with Somaliland, Israel risks alienating the Saudi leadership necessary to bankroll the broader regional security architecture. Consequently, while the likelihood of any new country joining the Accords has spiked, the path for Saudi Arabia—and by extension, cautious actors like Kuwait and Oman—to join in the near term has narrowed significantly.