ANALYSIS: China Challenges U.S. Control of Venezuelan Oil, Spiking Interdiction Risk

ANALYSIS: China Challenges U.S. Control of Venezuelan Oil, Spiking Interdiction Risk

BEIJING/CARACAS — China’s Foreign Ministry declared today that its energy ties with Venezuela "will not change," directly challenging Washington’s asserted control over the nation's reserves following the U.S. military intervention in Caracas. The statement significantly elevates the probability of maritime confrontations, as U.S. forces—now charged with managing the Venezuelan transition—may be compelled to seize vessels attempting to fulfill existing Chinese contracts.

The Ministry’s statement, released just 48 hours after U.S. forces launched "Operation Absolute Resolve" and detained Nicolás Maduro, asserts that Chinese interests will be "protected by law." This diplomatic signaling suggests Beijing intends to continue lifting Venezuelan crude, setting a collision course with U.S. naval assets patrolling the Caribbean.

The Flashpoint: Physical Cargoes The core conflict lies in the ownership of physical oil shipments. Following the January 3 operation, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would temporarily administer Venezuela and that U.S. energy firms would assume control of infrastructure to stabilize production. Implicit in this announcement is that Venezuela's resources are now under U.S. custody.

However, Beijing remains Venezuela’s largest creditor, holding billions in outstanding debt structured as "loans-for-oil." Since 2019, China has absorbed nearly 80% of Venezuela's oil exports to service these debts. Today's statement indicates that Beijing views these commodity-backed repayment contracts as sovereign obligations that survive regime change.

If Chinese-chartered tankers attempt to load crude at terminals now nominally under U.S. authority, or try to transit Venezuelan waters, they face immediate interdiction. Under the current rules of engagement, U.S. forces—including Coast Guard and Navy assets operating in the region—would likely define such shipments as the theft of assets under U.S. administration, providing the legal pretext to seize vessels or force their diversion to U.S. ports.

A Challenge to U.S. Authority By invoking "legal protection," Beijing is preemptively rejecting any U.S. move to void PDVSA’s existing obligations or redirect output to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

"However the situation in Venezuela changes, China's willingness to deepen cooperation will not change," the Foreign Ministry stated.

This creates a volatile window of uncertainty. While Vice President Delcy Rodríguez attempts to maintain a rival claim to the presidency, the practical control of oil flows remains disputed. If a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude attempts to depart for China—asserting its right under pre-intervention contracts—the U.S. military faces an immediate decision: allow the leakage of resources it claims to control, or physically seize the ship.

With the U.S. explicitly aiming to use oil revenue to fund the stabilization of Venezuela, the tolerance for "unauthorized" exports to China is likely near zero. This makes a maritime seizure—the specific condition of active prediction markets—a highly probable escalation in the immediate future.