U.S. Warns of Escalation as PLA "Justice Mission" Breaches Taiwan's Contiguous Zone

WASHINGTON/TAIPEI — The U.S. State Department has issued an urgent call for Beijing to "exercise restraint" following the conclusion of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) "Justice Mission 2025" exercises. While diplomatic rebukes are standard, the context is not: the drills mark a material shift in the cross-strait status quo, with Chinese forces normalizing operations within Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone.

For analysts forecasting conflict risks in the first half of 2026, this development bridges the gap between symbolic intimidation and the operational requirements for a blockade or invasion.

The State Department’s intervention follows the PLA Eastern Theater Command’s declaration of "successful completion" on December 31, 2025. Unlike previous exercises such as "Joint Sword-2024A," which were framed as political signaling, "Justice Mission 2025" tested specific tactical thresholds relevant to near-term offensive scenarios.

The Contiguous Zone Breach According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, PLA rockets impacted within the contiguous zone for the first time. This escalation places Chinese ordnance just minutes from Taiwan’s territorial waters (12 nautical miles), significantly shortening the warning time for a potential offensive. This compression of reaction time is a critical variable for invasion forecasts; it erodes the distinction between training maneuvers and the initial stages of a campaign to establish territorial control—the precise criteria tracked by March 31 and June 30, 2026, risk horizons.

Gray Zone Escalation and Blockade Mechanics The composition of the drills also highlights a rising probability of "gray zone" incidents turning kinetic. The exercises featured heavy integration of the China Coast Guard (CCG) alongside the PLA Navy in simulated blockade operations.

By framing airspace and maritime denials as "law enforcement," Beijing is rehearsing a de facto blockade. While "Justice Mission" did not sustain the 24-hour denial of commercial traffic required to meet the technical definition of a blockade, the CCG's involvement increases the surface area for ship-to-ship collisions. Under current observation definitions, "intentional ramming" by the CCG that results in significant hull damage or sinking would classify as a military encounter, triggering a distinct set of geopolitical consequences.

The Catalyst The surge in activity was triggered by the U.S. notification of a record $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan in December 2025, a package including HIMARS and advanced radar systems. Beijing has utilized this political trigger to validate a heightened military posture that persists even after the formal end of the drills.

While President Lai Ching-te’s administration condemned the maneuvers as an "irrational provocation" and Taiwan’s forces exercised restraint to avoid direct engagement, the PLA has stated its troops remain on "high alert." The U.S. statement reflects a growing assessment in Washington that the buffer preventing a kinetic event in 2026 is rapidly thinning.