Trump Dampens Nuclear Deal Hopes as Netanyahu Summit Signals Pivot to Deterrence

WEST PALM BEACH — Prospects for a U.S.-Iran nuclear accord by year’s end have all but evaporated, with President Trump publicly acknowledging for the first time since his return to office that a deal "sometimes doesn't happen."

The President’s assessment, delivered hours before a pivotal summit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida, sends a distinct bearish signal to global markets: the diplomatic window that cracked open following the "12-day war" in June is rapidly shutting. While the White House has publicly maintained a dual-track strategy of "maximum pressure" alongside engagement since February 2025, the administration is now visibly pivoting toward containment as Tehran adopts a war-footing stance.

Deal Odds Plummet as Back-Channels Collapse President Trump’s remarks punctuate a breakdown in communication channels. Despite a last-ditch attempt by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to broker a face-to-face meeting this weekend, Iranian officials have categorically rejected new talks.

This rejection was reinforced by escalatory rhetoric from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Saturday. In an interview with the Supreme Leader’s office, Pezeshkian characterized Iran’s posture as a "full-scale war with America, Israel, and Europe." This declaration marks a sharp departure from previous diplomatic overtures and significantly reduces the probability of a mutual agreement—the specific resolution criteria for prediction markets—being signed in the near term.

Focus Shifts: From Negotiation to Pre-emption The Israeli delegation's arrival in Florida suggests the strategic conversation has moved from de-escalation to pre-emption, complicating any roadmap for a deal in 2025 or 2026.

According to briefing materials, Prime Minister Netanyahu is presenting President Trump with intelligence indicating Tehran is rebuilding ballistic missile stockpiles degraded during the June conflict and pursuing "compact warheads" designed to bypass defenses. Sources indicate Israel is seeking a "green light" for action should these red lines be crossed—a posture implying the region is preparing for kinetic conflict rather than a signing ceremony.

The "Maximum Pressure" Reality While President Trump reportedly offered Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a binary choice between a comprehensive deal or escalation in a recent letter, his public admission that a deal may fail suggests the latter path is now the prevailing trajectory.

With the IAEA unable to verify activities at Iranian aerospace facilities and the U.S. maintaining strict sanctions, the structural requirements for an official agreement are currently absent. As the administration’s focus turns to the Netanyahu summit, the likelihood of a breakthrough resolution regarding Iranian nuclear research before the December 31 deadline appears increasingly remote.