Israel Demands New Disarmament Metrics, Pushing Phase 2 Deal into 2026

JERUSALEM – The prospect of finalizing Phase 2 of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire before the close of 2025 effectively evaporated today, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conditioned further diplomatic progress on the establishment of "clear standards" for the dismantling of Hamas’s weaponry.

The Prime Minister’s demand introduces a complex technical barrier to the negotiations just 48 hours before the year-end deadline monitored by geopolitical observers. By pivoting from general political commitments to rigid technical compliance, Israel has signaled that the diplomatic window for a comprehensive deal has shifted entirely to January 2026 or beyond.

The Disarmament Standoff While the initial Phase 1 truce—established on October 8—succeeded in halting major combat and pulling Israeli forces back to the "yellow line," the transition to a comprehensive Phase 2 deal has stalled over the definition of demilitarization.

The Israeli stance hardened following a December 24 security breach in Rafah, where an explosion injured an IDF officer. Israeli officials cited the incident as proof that current protocols are insufficient to prevent Hamas from maintaining weapons caches in civilian areas. Consequently, Israel is now demanding codified metrics for the "actual dismantling" of weapons as a prerequisite for proceeding with governance talks or further withdrawals.

Outlook for Q1 2026 Netanyahu’s statement follows a high-stakes meeting on Monday (Dec. 29) with U.S. President Donald Trump. While the Trump administration is reportedly pushing to launch the reconstruction phase by early January, Israel has signaled it will not proceed without strict enforcement mechanisms—likely involving international inspections or turnover quotas.

This creates a significant gap to bridge in the first quarter of the new year. Hamas, communicating through mediators in Qatar, continues to reject unilateral disarmament, arguing such steps should follow, not precede, a full Israeli withdrawal.

While Turkish and Egyptian mediators are scrambling to align technical definitions to save the "early 2026" timeline, the introduction of these preconditions suggests that the negotiation process for Phase 2 will be more protracted than initially projected, casting doubt on a rapid January resolution.