Venezuela’s Acting Leader Pivots to Compliance, Lowering Odds of Imminent U.S. Strikes

CARACAS — Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez signaled a dramatic capitulation to Washington today, calling for "balanced and respectful" relations in a move widely interpreted as an effort to prevent further U.S. military action following the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

The statement represents the first signal of compliance from Miraflores Palace since President Donald Trump issued a blunt ultimatum on January 4: cooperate, or Rodríguez would "pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro."

For markets weighing the probability of follow-up U.S. strikes—specifically drone or missile campaigns in the immediate window of January 10 and 12—Rodríguez’s pivot marks a critical de-escalation. By prioritizing a "cooperation agenda," the interim administration appears to be bowing to U.S. leverage, likely reducing the Pentagon's immediate need to conduct further aerial bombardment to enforce its will.

Survival Over Sovereignty

The shift in tone is stark. immediately following the January 3 U.S. military operation that transferred Maduro to federal custody in New York, Rodríguez condemned the act as an "illegal kidnapping." However, the rapid consolidation of U.S. pressure—including threats of an enforced "oil quarantine" and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s assertion of control over Venezuelan resource flows—has forced a recalculation.

Analysts suggest Rodríguez is attempting to stabilize her tenuous authority by aligning with President Trump’s demand for "total access," effectively trading sovereignty for regime survival. This pivot has significant legislative implications: a compliant transition government significantly diminishes the political argument for a formal Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) currently being weighed by the U.S. Congress.

The Complexity of "Ceasefire"

While this rhetorical shift reduces the immediate threat of U.S. ordnance impacting Venezuelan soil, the path to a formal resolution remains fraught. The U.S. has signaled an intention to effectively "run" the country during the transition. Despite the Supreme Tribunal of Justice backing Rodríguez, the political landscape remains fractured.

notably, President Trump has publicly questioned the support base of traditional opposition figures, suggesting the White House may prefer dealing with a capitulating Rodríguez rather than immediately installing rival claimants. Whether this evolves into an official cessation of hostilities or a formal bilateral agreement by the end of January depends entirely on the speed at which Caracas implements the specific access demands issued by the Trump administration.