China-France Statement: No Shift on Peacekeepers or NATO Neutrality

China-France Statement: No Shift on Peacekeepers or NATO Neutrality

BEIJING — A high-stakes joint statement issued Thursday by French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping has concluded without offering new pathways for European peacekeeping forces or Ukrainian neutrality, signaling a continuation of the status quo for key 2025 geopolitical risk markets.

While the communiqué calls for an immediate "political settlement" to the war in Ukraine, it stops short of triggering the specific criteria required to resolve pending forecasts regarding NATO accession bans or Western troop deployments.

Silence on Peacekeeping Forces Despite President Macron’s continued advocacy for European "strategic autonomy" and France’s role as an "independent pole" within the West, the Beijing statement contained no commitment to deploy French or EU troops to a security corridor in Ukraine.

For market participants monitoring the probability of an EU/NATO peacekeeping announcement by the end of 2025, the summit reinforces a reliance on diplomatic leverage rather than military intervention. The leaders emphasized a "constructive" role in facilitating dialogue, with Beijing warning against "smearing" third countries—a rhetorical pivot away from the operational specifics of a peacekeeping mandate.

The NATO Question vs. The "28-Point Plan" The summit occurred amid intense speculation regarding a U.S.-proposed "28-point peace plan" and backchannel meetings between President-elect Donald Trump’s envoys and Russian officials. Rumors that a NATO non-accession pledge—either through 2027 or indefinitely—might be a precondition of this U.S. framework were not substantiated in the China-France text.

Instead, President Xi reiterated support for a peace conference "recognized by both Russia and Ukraine." While this suggests a diplomatic convergence that could eventually lead to a neutrality agreement, the absence of a formal non-accession pledge preserves the current stalemate regarding Ukraine's NATO trajectory.

Diplomatic Bandwidth The scope of the Ukraine discussions was likely constrained by the simultaneous escalation in Gaza. With the October 9 ceasefire collapsing and hostilities renewing in southern Gaza, the "dual-crisis" nature of the summit demanded significant bandwidth, resulting in a $100 million humanitarian aid pledge from Beijing but limiting detailed architectural planning for European security.

The Takeaway The Beijing summit keeps diplomatic channels open but leaves the critical variables of Ukrainian neutrality and Western "boots on the ground" unresolved. For now, the probability of a formalized NATO exclusion deal or a peacekeeping deployment remains contingent on future U.S.-led negotiations rather than current Sino-European alignment.